theKAUFMANS

A lot of pent up demand

2012-03-06T21:57:00.000-08:00

There is something going on in the Lafayette Moraga and Orinda real estate market of recent. It appears as though the short sale is no longer chipping away at overall home prices in the area and we are starting to encounter some signs of a new beginning.

Last month in the Lafayette Moraga and Orinda area, there were 23 properties that sold. Of the 23, 17 were detached homes.

The average list price was $1,006,000. The average sale price was $982,000 a drop of about 2 percent.

There is also something else that's happening in our market. The return of the multiple offers. There were three houses in the past two weeks that had a minimum of 10 offers on each.

What's causing this phenomena to return. First, let's look at the fact that not a lot of real estate sold between 2008 in 2011. There appears to be a pent-up demand with not a lot of inventory, consequently we are seeing multiple offers on good lots.

I say lots rather than houses because it is the piece of land that has been the key selling point in all of these cases.

Points and Mortgages

2012-03-01T23:41:00.002-08:00

The New York Times

Points lose favor
With interest rates at or near record lows, many borrowers are seeing little reason to pay points when buying or refinancing a home. Some are even opting for what’s known as “negative points,” agreeing to a slightly higher rate to help pay closing costs.

Making sense of the story

Paying points enables a borrower to “buy down” the interest rate on a mortgage in exchange for an upfront fee. The trend away from points partly reflects borrower sentiment that rates are already low enough, according to industry experts.
A point equals 1 percent of the loan amount, so paying one point on a $250,000 refinancing costs an extra $2,500 at closing, in addition to other mortgage fees, taxes, and escrow amounts. Paying a point usually reduces the interest rate by 0.25 points over its term, so for instance, instead of 4 percent, the rate is 3.75 percent.
The average number of points paid in 2011, according to a Freddie Mac survey, was 0.7 percentage points, less than half the levels people paid in the 1990s. The average has been 0.7 percent for three years, after it hit a low of 0.4 percent in 2007; in 1995 it averaged 1.8 percent, according to Freddie Mac data.
The primary advantages of paying points are a lower rate and monthly payment. To decide if paying points is worthwhile, borrowers should consider two key decisions: How long they plan to live in the home, and how much they can afford in close costs.
Many mortgage professionals suggest following this rule: If the borrower plans to live in the home for at least five years, paying points will help the homeowner to reap savings.
Some borrowers are even going for negative points, which is also called a lender rebate or points in reverse. In exchange for accepting a higher interest rate, the lender agrees to give the borrower a credit, which is usually used for closing costs.

Brokers tour for Tuesday, February 21, 2012.

2012-02-21T15:49:00.002-08:00

Today we saw four properties in Lafayette. The first one at 955 Diablo Drive listed at $629,000 with a three bedroom two bath 1587 ft.² house that needed some work. The house itself did not show well because it was very cluttered. The downside is that it only has a one car attached garage and is an upslope property. Property 2 was located at 853 Las Trampas Road listed at $1,295,000 for a four-bedroom, three bath house. The house is a two level house 3191 ft.² and has no yard. The house did have sensational views. House number three was located at 24 N. Ridge Ln. It was listed at $1,795,000 for a 4117 ft.² five bedroom, 4 1/2 bathroom house on two levels. The views were very, very nice. However the master bedroom was located downstairs. This house was on in 2011 taken off for the holiday and reintroduced this week. The fourth house was located at 804 Acalanes Rd. It is a 5620 ft.² house with five bedrooms, 5 1/2 bathrooms on 2.41 acres. The house offers tremendous amount of privacy in a beautiful estate setting. There is a shared tennis court and two wonderful pool sites available on the property. The house is a two level house, with four bedrooms and 3 1/2 baths upstairs and a separate family room and bedroom with two full baths located down stairs. The house has a wonderful light.

There were three houses in Moraga today. Two of them in Moraga country club. There was a two bedroom, two bath 2055 ft.² house at 101 Brookline St. , listed at $695,000. The other house in Moraga country club was located at 1753 Spyglass Ln. It is listed for $869,000. It is a four-bedroom, 2 1/2 bath home 2828 ft.² on .125 acres. It has wonderful views of the golf course but no backyard. Then we looked at 471 Millfield Place. It is listed at $1,299,000. It is a four-bedroom, four bath house 3644 ft.² on .27 acres. It was listed in 2011 for $1,360,000. It is a two level house with a swimming pool.

There were four houses in Orinda that we looked at. 88 Barbara Rd was on last year and is a two story home up a very steep driveway with 3 bedrooms and 3 baths in 2,121 sf. It is a difficult home to navigate up to. The second house we saw was 91 Wanflete Court in Orinda. It is a three bedroom two bath house. 1771 ft.² located on a 19,560 ft.² lot and listed for $775,000. It also had a very steep driveway up to the house. The backyard was nonexistent except for a small side yard and a concrete patio that was about 10 feet wide. The bedrooms were all hardwood floors and on the small side. 52 Rheem Blvd. was listed at $945,000. It is a three bedroom, three bath house in 2502 ft.² on .558 acres. It is a single level house that was built in 1949, and has a contemporary style. It is a lovely property, albeit sitting close to the Rheem Boulevard you certainly do get some traffic noise from the street. The last house we sort in Orinda was located at 8 Lost Valley Dr. It is a four-bedroom, three and two half bath house. 3265 ft.² on 1.1 acres. The house was built in 1965 and is a very nice house. The one drawback is that it sits close to a high tension wire. There is a pool and a waterfall.

Chief Economist of the California Association of Realtors Leslie Appleton-Young with the 2012 real estate market update

2012-02-11T23:52:00.000-08:00

Housing Crisis to End in 2012?

2012-02-04T00:03:00.000-08:00

Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit.

The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.

Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters.

However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability.

Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.

Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”

In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.

While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan.

Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generation actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability.

2012-01-26T11:37:00.000-08:00

Remodeling Magazine just released their comparisons of 35 popular remodeling projects with the value those projects retain at resale. The following is a list of the top 6 projects that return the most. For a detailed list of all 35 popular remodeling projects please click on the link below.
1. Replacing the entry door to steel
Estimated cost: $1,238
Cost recouped at resale: 73%
2. Attic bedroom (converting unfinished attic space into a bedroom with bathroom and shower)
Estimated cost: $50,148
Cost recouped at resale: 72.5%
3. Minor kitchen remodel (including new cabinets and drawers, countertops, hardware, and appliances)
Estimated cost: $19,588
Cost recouped at resale: 72.1%
4. Garage door replacement
Estimated cost: $1,512
Cost recouped at resale: 71.9%
5. Deck addition (wood)
Estimated cost: $10,350
Cost recouped at resale: 70.1%
6. Siding replacement (vinyl)
Estimated cost: $11,729
Cost recouped at resale: 69.5%
http://www.costvsvalue.com/

Homeowners by Age

2012-01-14T00:29:00.000-08:00

Homeowners by Age

Turning Foreclosures into Rentals

2012-01-12T18:47:00.001-08:00

Turning foreclosures into rentals
By Tami Luhby@CNNMoneyJanuary 10, 2012: 11:36 AM ET

The government wants to turn foreclosures into rentals.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Federal officials hope to launch a pilot program in early 2012 to convert government-owned foreclosures into rental properties.
The program, which was cited by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week as one way to address the housing crisis, would sell foreclosed homes now owned by Fannie Mae (FNMA, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FMCC, Fortune 500) to investors in bulk. The properties would then be converted into rentals.
The initiative began back in August, when the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the Treasury Department and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced they were seeking suggestions on ways to dispose of repossessed homes now owned by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration.
In addition to getting the properties off the government's books, officials are hoping putting the homes back into productive use will stabilize neighborhoods and housing values. Also, it is looking to expand the supply of rentals, which are increasingly in demand.
The agency is not releasing details on how the rental program would work, instead saying it is "proceeding prudently but with a sense of urgency to lay the groundwork for the development of good initial transactions in early 2012."
Administration officials said they are continuing to work with the agency to develop the program.
Housing, stocks, gold and oil: Hot or not in 2012?
Until now, most foreclosed homes have been sold individually because investors have demanded bigger discounts to buy large numbers of properties.
But federal officials are warily eyeing the expected surge in foreclosures as banks ramp up their action against delinquent homeowners. The process had been stalled since late 2010 when banks' shoddy paperwork practices came to light.
There are close to 2 million homes in the late stages of delinquency, according to Lender Processing Services. Since foreclosed properties often sell below market value, they can wreak havoc on home prices.
Converting these homes to rentals can both help the neighborhood and minimize losses to Fannie, Freddie and the FHA, which hold about 250,000 properties, Bernanke told lawmakers last week.
He urged lawmakers to ramp up their efforts to fix the housing market, placing particular emphasis on the problem of vacant homes on the market.
"Restoring the health of the housing market is a necessary part of a broader strategy for economic recovery," he said.
Bernanke's comments launched a full-court press by Federal Reserve officials last week to raise awareness of the continuing problems plaguing the housing market.
His proposals were quickly followed by Fed Governors Sarah Bloom Raskin, who spoke on ramping up enforcement of mortgage servicers, and Elizabeth Duke, who said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could do more to help heal the housing market.
Meanwhile, New York Fed President William Dudley gave a speech that touched on a wide range of housing policies -- including principal reduction and mortgage refinancing -- that he believes will boost the economy.
The Fed has already tried to boost real estate sales by pushing mortgage rates down to record lows through massive bond-buying programs.
But the renewed push for housing help indicates that the Fed, which has basically run out of monetary policy ammunition to revive the real estate market, is urging the federal government to ramp up its efforts.
"The Federal Reserve is signaling in even stronger terms the need for the government to do more to help housing," said Jaret Seiberg, a policy analyst with the Washington Research Group.

2012-01-11T17:26:00.000-08:00

Consumer Attitudes Improve in December
More Americans Think Economy is on the Right Track; More Respondents Expect Home Prices to Improve
Pete Bakel

Americans' attitudes on a variety of issues are marginally better than one month ago, according to results from Fannie Mae’s December National Housing Survey. Despite overall low levels of optimism among Americans, consumer sentiment trended in a positive direction in the final months of 2011.
Americans who say the economy is on the right track rose by 6 percentage points since November, while the percentage who say the economy is on the wrong track dropped by 6 percentage points. When asked about housing, more Americans expect home prices to to increase compared to November and, on average, Americans expect home prices to increase by 0.8 percent over the next year, up from an expected 0.2 percent increase last month.
Highlights of the survey include:
• Thirty-six percent of Americans say that mortgage rates will go up over the next 12 months, up 3 percentage points from November and was even with October.
• Seventy-one percent of respondents say it is a good time to buy a home (up 3 percentage points since last month), and 11 percent say it is a good time to sell.
• On average, Americans expect home rental prices to increase by 3.5 percent over the next 12 months, up from 3.2 percent in November.
• Five percent expect a decline in home rental prices over the next 12 months (tying May 2011 as the lowest point in the past 12 months), while 43 percent of respondents believe that home rental prices will increase.
• Thirty-one percent of Americans say they would rent their next home, while 64 percent say they would buy, up 1 percentage point from last month.

San Francisco in 1955

2012-01-08T18:05:00.000-08:00

2012-01-07T14:53:00.000-08:00

FHA says: Flip that house

By Les Christie@CNNMoneyJanuary 2, 2012: 10:48 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Flippers, the real estate investors who buy homes on the cheap and quickly resell them at a profit, just got a reprieve from the Federal Housing Administration.
In an effort to help stabilize housing prices and unload some of the foreclosures that are flooding low-income communities, the mortgage insurer extended a waiver of its anti-flipping regulations through 2012.

The waiver, which was initially issued in 2010 and set to expire this month, suspends regulations that prohibit the agency from insuring mortgages used to purchase homes that are bought and resold in less than 90 days.
"This extension is intended to accelerate the resale of foreclosed properties in neighborhoods struggling to overcome the possible effects of abandonment and blight," said Acting Federal Housing Administration Commissioner Carol Galante.
Low-income neighborhoods are particularly plagued by foreclosed homes that lower property values and act as magnets for crime and other social ills. Real estate flippers often rehab these damaged homes before reselling them, improving conditions for neighborhoods.
The FHA, which does not issue mortgages but insures them, is a primary player when it comes to mortgage lending in low-income communities. Many loans in these communities could not be issued without FHA backing.
The ban against flipping was initially put in place to prevent predatory flipping, in which homes are quickly resold at inflated prices to unsuspecting borrowers.
In order to qualify for the waiver, certain conditions must be met. The transaction must be "arms length" with no other relationship between seller and buyer.

In addition, if the new sale price is 20% or more above the previous selling price, the lender has to document and justify the increase and meet other conditions, such as making sure the home has been inspected.

Since the waiver went into effect in February of 2010, the FHA has insured more than 42,000 loans to purchase homes that were being resold within 90 days. These totaled more than $7 billion in mortgage principal.

Market update

2012-01-07T01:48:00.000-08:00

There is not much happening in the market right now. There are only 78 properties that are listed currently in Lafayette Moraga and Orinda. There are 40 houses in Lafayette, 12 houses in Moraga, and 26 houses in Orinda. Only one property has sold since the beginning of the year. 66 Tara Rd. in Orinda, which was a three-bedroom, two bath on a .55 acre parcel 1404 sq/ft sold for $600,000 after it was listed for $625,000.

2012-01-07T01:04:00.000-08:00

The Wall Street Journal

Five issues for housing in 2012

Just as in 2011, in 2012 many will be trying to figure out where housing is headed. While the housing market didn’t worsen in 2011, it also didn’t stabilize either. This year, the story will be about local markets. While many housing markets rose and fell together, they’re recovering at difference paces so talking about housing on a national level is not beneficial.

Making sense of the story

Confidence and jobs: Housing is more affordable than it has been in decades, but many would-be buyers are worried about buying today if prices are going to be lower tomorrow. Still, others don’t want to buy a house until they have more evidence that they’re not going to get laid off or see their hours cut back.
Foreclosures: Banks and other mortgage investors own around 440,000 foreclosed properties, but there’s another 3.4 million loans in foreclosure or serious delinquency, according to estimates by Barclays Capital. Because banks are faster to cut prices to unload inventory than are traditional sellers, home values can fall further as the share of distressed sales rises.
Rents: If low mortgage rates aren’t enough to give urgency to would-be buyers, rent hikes could accelerate buyers’ decisions to take the plunge.
Mortgage credit and rates: It’s still hard for many buyers to get approved for a mortgage because banks are demanding lots of documentation of borrowers’ incomes.
Regulation: Many analysts don’t expect Congress to make major changes to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the election year, but several major regulatory changes could significantly reshape the future of the lending landscape in 2012.
Meanwhile, the regulator that oversees Fannie and Freddie is revamping the way that mortgage companies are paid for collecting loan payments. This could lead to a broader shakeup in the mortgage industry that ultimately influences how much borrowers are charged for mortgages and how banks handle loans that fall into delinquency.

2012-01-04T22:07:00.000-08:00

There are currently 73 homes available in (LAMORINDA) Lafayette, Moraga, and Orinda. 5 of these are condominiums or townhouses.
They range in price from $165,000 to $6,750,000. The average list price for a home is $1,443,970.
Lafayette has 36 homes. A condo on Marlene is priced at $331,000 and 4949 Happy Valley Road is priced at $5.8 million.
Moraga has eight houses and four condominiums for sale. They range in price from $165,000-$3,500,000.
Orinda has 25 houses. One condominium at 12 Brookwood, Rd which is a two bedroom one bath apartment and is selling for $475,000. 92 Sandhill Rd. in Orinda is selling at $6,750,000.
No homes sold in the first four days January 2012.
Interest rates will be going up. Loans will be more difficult to come by as bank restrictions become increasingly greater. This is the perfect time to sell a house. It is also the perfect time to buy a house. Please contact us if you would like more information regarding any of the above statistics.
This chart shows you the median price of all of the properties that have sold in 2011 in Lafayette, Moraga, and Orinda.

The median house price in December 2010 with $810,000. The median price in December 2011 was $890,000 an $80,000 increase. You can see the growth of median price from December 2010 to increasing and leveling off in 2011.

2011-12-29T22:59:00.000-08:00

HAPPYY HOLIDAYS from the KAUFMANS

Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda market update:

76 homes for sale in Lamorinda
38 in Lafayette, 14 in Moraga and 24 in Orinda
34 Lamorinda homes sold in December with the average list price at $953,669 the average sale price at $916,334 showing a 3.9% dip in home prices.

2011-12-29T20:31:00.000-08:00

California Association of Realtors
Consumer confidence improves in DecemberThe Conference Board
Consumer Confidence Index improved to 64.5 (1985=100) in December, up from 55.2
in November. The Present Situation Index increased to 46.7 from 38.3, and the
Expectations Index rose to 76.4 from 66.4.

Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved in December. Those
stating business conditions are "good" increased to 16.6 percent from 13.9
percent, while those stating business conditions are "bad" declined to 33.9
percent from 38.0 percent. Consumers' assessment of the job market also was more
positive. Those claiming jobs are "plentiful" increased to 6.7 percent from 5.6
percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" decreased to 41.8 percent
from 43 percent.

2011-12-29T00:27:00.000-08:00

The Orange County Register
California house sales up, prices down
California home sales posted an increase both on a monthly and annual basis in November,
marking the fifth consecutive month of year-to-year sales increases, according to figures
released today from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.). Meanwhile,
the statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home sold in California rose 1
percent compared with October, but declined 5.2 percent compared with a year earlier.
Making sense of the story
 Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California rose to a
seasonally adjusted 503,570 units in November, up 2.1 percent from a revised 493,140
in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local
REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide.
 November home sales also were up 2.3 percent from the revised 492,040 units sold
during the like period a year ago. The statewide sales figure represents what would be
the total number of homes sold during 2011 if sales maintained the November pace
throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence
home sales.
 The November statewide median price of an existing, single-family detached home sold
in California was $280,960, up 1 percent from $278,060 in October but down 5.2 percent
from the $296,480 median price recorded for November 2010.
 The Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes was 5 months in
November, down from 5.3 months in October and down from a 6.2-month supply in
November 2010. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the